研究文章

Random-Parameter多元负二项回归建模的影响因素在事故频率崩溃类型

表8

独立的泊松模型估计结果。

变量1 不。2 在尾端的估计(t统计) Bumping-guardrail估计(t统计) 其他的估计(t统计) Noncasualty估计(t统计) 伤亡估计(t统计)

常数 5 0.177 (1.41) 0.515 (3.27) −0.460 (−2.31) 0.228 (2.51) −0.348 (−1.07)

交通特征
交换 3 - - - - - -3 - - - - - - −0.3482 (−3.01) −0.088 (−1.93) −0.529 (−2.54)
黑色的斑点 5 1.020 (16.68) 0.859 (10.40) 1.227 (10.68) 1.083 (23.20) 1.316 (6.10)
AADT 5 0.0000236 (10.04) 0.00000909 (3.03) 0.000011 (2.77) 0.0000312 (18.14) −0.000014 (0.047)

速度特性
5 −0.0134 (−5.96) −0.00807 (−2.81) −0.0144 (−3.73) −0.0181 (−10.98) −0.0154 (−2.05)
5 0.0119 (5.27) 0.00829 (2.85) 0.0112 (2.80) 0.0124 (7.53) 0.0219 (2.70)
2 0.0209 (4.86) - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.0285 (8.90) - - - - - -
4 −0.0196 (−6.81) −0.00939 (−2.54) −0.0190 (−3.90) −0.0234 (−11.05) - - - - - -

几何特征
2 0.000000154 (2.54) - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.000000148 (3.36) - - - - - -
3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.0000506 (1.94) 0.000272 (2.62)
2 0.000000410 (6.12) - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.000000375 (7.71) - - - - - -
5 0.000567 (15.62) 0.000460 (9.02) 0.000659 (10.59) 0.000630 (24.12) 0.00075 (7.16)
1 - - - - - - −0.000131 (−2.71) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - −0.108 (−2.44) - - - - - -
4 −0.0003483 (−3.67) - - - - - - −0.0004866 (−2.91) −0.000437 (−6.18) −0.000644 (−2.12)

视觉特征
5 −0.00644 (−4.78) −0.00641 (−3.35) −0.0118 (−4.28) −0.00847 (−8.14) −0.0142 (−3.03)
4 −0.104 (−3.93) −0.106 (−3.06) −0.110 (−2.37) −0.1232 (−6.11) - - - - - -

参数:总数61;对数似:−16595.848;AIC: 33441.697;BIC: 33934.501; :50507.432。