年度和季节性降水变化特征在岷江上游,中国西南部</t我tle> <link href="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/1362708-style.css" rel="stylesheet"> <link rel="preload stylesheet" as="style" type="text/css" href="https://cdn.bibblio.org/rcm/4.28.0/bib-related-content.min.css"> <link rel="preload" href="https://static.hindawi.com/new/next_assets/2023-08-03-0017a694320dbe69a559e8120be98c/_next/static/css/b2661f2cd4bd618b.css" as="style"> <link rel="stylesheet" href="https://static.hindawi.com/new/next_assets/2023-08-03-0017a694320dbe69a559e8120be98c/_next/static/css/b2661f2cd4bd618b.css" data-n-g=""> <style id="__jsx-903e4b2e5d3241e4">div#__next{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-moz-box;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;min-height:100vh;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;-webkit-box-direction:normal;-webkit-flex-direction:column;-moz-box-orient:vertical;-moz-box-direction:normal;-ms-flex-direction:column;flex-direction:column}</style> </head> <body> <div id="__next"> <section 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19.6-6.1-398.3 0-208.8.2-379.7.5-379.7S236.6 290.1 401 404z"></path> </svg></span></a><a href="http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1045-6146" aria-label="Redirect to Doi" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer"><span role="img" class="anticon"> <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewbox="0 0 256 256" xml:space="preserve" width="1em" height="1em"> <path d="M256 128c0 70.7-57.3 128-128 128S0 198.7 0 128 57.3 0 128 0s128 57.3 128 128z" fill="#a6ce39"></path> <path d="M86.3 186.2H70.9V79.1h15.4v107.1zm22.6-107.1h41.6c39.6 0 57 28.3 57 53.6 0 27.5-21.5 53.6-56.8 53.6h-41.8V79.1zm15.4 93.3h24.5c34.9 0 42.9-26.5 42.9-39.7C191.7 111.2 178 93 148 93h-23.7v79.4zM88.7 56.8c0 5.5-4.5 10.1-10.1 10.1s-10.1-4.6-10.1-10.1c0-5.6 4.5-10.1 10.1-10.1s10.1 4.6 10.1 10.1z" fill="#fff"></path> </svg></span></a>,<sup>1、2</sup></span> <span class="articleHeader__authors_author">和丹张<sup>1、2</sup></span> </div> <div class="simpleShowMore"> <button class="simpleShowMore__button">显示更多</button> </div> <div class="articleHeader__academicEditor"> <strong>学术编辑器:</strong> <span>安东尼·r·卢波</span> </div> <div class="articleHeader__timeline"> <div class="articleHeader__timeline_item "> <strong>收到了</strong> <span>08年6月2018年</span> </div> <div class="articleHeader__timeline_item "> <strong>修改后的</strong> <span>2018年8月21日</span> </div> <div class="articleHeader__timeline_item "> <strong>接受</strong> <span>2018年9月26日</span> </div> <div class="articleHeader__timeline_item articleHeader__timeline_item_sticky"> <strong>发表</strong> <span>2018年10月30日</span> </div> </div> </div> <div class="articleBody"> <div class="xml-content"> <h4 class="header" id="abstract">文摘</h4> <p>和季节性降水年际变率的特点,探索在岷江上游(UMR),中国西南部,包括从1960年到2015年。的方法(MOM),线性回归方法,Mann-Kendall测试序列聚类分析,小波分析Morlet被利用。结果清楚显示如下:(1)降水的分布是不均匀的空间,有更多的南部和东南部。十年平均年降水量达到最低在2000年代和2010 - 2015年期间增加测量站和UMR。(2)区域年降水量表现出一个微不足道的减少趋势率为4.47毫米/ 10,这主要是由于夏季降水减少。春季降水表现出一个微不足道的增加趋势,冬季降水保持不变。(3)点的变化主要出现在1980年代和1990年代。几乎和研究区域通常是2 - 5年的时间,7 - 11年,15 - 20年。(4)不断增加的趋势,在高海拔地区年降水量相对明显,而减少的趋势是更重要的在低海拔。</p> <span class="end-abs"></span> <h4 id="introduction">1。介绍</h4> <p>全球气候变化问题日益突出,这是一个全球的问题,应该在经济和社会发展面临<一个href="#B1">1</一个>- - - - - -<一个href="#B3">3</一个>]。众所周知,气候变化有较大影响气象因素如温度和降水的变化。近年来,中国的降水异常改变了气候变化条件下(<一个href="#B4">4</一个>- - - - - -<一个href="#B6">6</一个>]。降雨模式的变化可能会导致干旱、洪水、水土流失、生物多样性的丧失和农业生产力。因此,分析降水的统计特性起着至关重要的作用不仅在干旱和洪水风险评估,而且在水资源规划和管理。</p> <p>趋势分析和水文气象时间序列突变检测已被许多研究人员使用统计方法研究[<一个href="#B7">7</一个>- - - - - -<一个href="#B15">15</一个>]。Sayemuzzaman et al。<一个href="#B16">16</一个>]利用Mann-Kendall测试和Theil-Sen检测方法的发展趋势和年度季节性降水序列在时间和空间在北卡罗莱纳,美国。Shirvani [<一个href="#B17">17</一个>)检测到变化点在年度波斯湾海面温度异常在1951 - 2013年时间序列基于学生的<我>t</我>模型参数和Mann-Whitney非参数变化点。Zarenistanak et al。<一个href="#B18">18</一个>]分析趋势和分年度和季节性降水和温度改变系列和佩蒂特是伊朗西南部的测试,Mann-Kendall测试生成从1950年到2007年。</p> <p>具有良好的时间和频率多分辨率小波方法,可有效诊断的主要频率成分和抽象的本地信息的时间序列。一些研究人员应用小波分析调查时间系列如径流、降水、温度(<一个href="#B19">19</一个>- - - - - -<一个href="#B21">21</一个>]。Jemai et al。<一个href="#B22">22</一个>)显示时间的雨加布流域基于小波和相干小波分析。唱et al。<一个href="#B23">23</一个>)使用改进的连续小波变换方法来研究几种典型水文系列的周期性特征,包括径流和降水数据。</p> <p>由于气候变化的影响,干旱和洪水的频率和强度一直在增加(在中国的西南<一个href="#B24">24</一个>,<一个href="#B25">25</一个>]。作为中国西南地区的核心地区之一,UMR,位于青藏高原之间的过渡区和四川盆地,是成都平原水资源的主要来源,从降水和径流主要是充电。然而,在这个地区频繁的干旱和洪水阻碍了经济发展,导致了严重的环境问题<一个href="#B26">26</一个>]。因此,研究水文和气象变化特征在UMR逐渐被越来越多的关注。黄等。<一个href="#B27">27</一个>UMR)检测到的特征hydroclimatic变化根据七个水文站和六个气象站1956 - 2007年,包括降水、温度、径流。结果表明,降水有显著下降趋势,年平均气温显著增加的趋势,总径流明显减少的趋势。周et al。<一个href="#B28">28</一个>)的时空分布进行了探讨岷江流域降水从1956年到2001年,透露,在汛期降水呈现减少趋势,及其周期性变化是2年,5 - 7年,到14年。马等。<一个href="#B29">29日</一个>]分析趋势和突然的月度和年度平均气温和降水变化松潘县城。我们所知,此前的研究几乎是在2010年之前,不覆盖整个UMR作为系统和深入研究区域探测降水变化。</p> <p>本研究的主要目标是探讨时空分布、趋势、突然的变化,时间的沉淀在UMR通过使用历史观察日常降水从1960年到2015年在年度和季节性的时间尺度。与此同时,降水变化的原因也进行了讨论。这样的研究有利于减少灾难的风险,合理分配水资源,并支持气候变化条件下的水资源管理的决策。它还起着至关重要的作用在为政府决策提供可靠的依据和帮助该地区社会和经济可持续发展。介绍后,研究区和选定的数据给出了部分<一个href="#sec2">2</一个>。部分<一个href="#sec3">3</一个>列出了适当的方法。节<一个href="#sec4">4</一个>,结果和讨论。最后,结论部分进行了总结<一个href="#sec5">5</一个>。</p> <h4 id="study-area-and-data">2。研究区域与数据</h4> <h5 id="sec2.1">2.1。研究区域</h5> <p>长江的主要支流之一在中国,岷江起源于四川岷山山脉的南部边境的四川和甘肃,穿过成都平原,长江宜宾城市。岷江上游(UMR)是指上面的河紫坪铺水库,这是一个高原气候和亚热带气候地区。它从东经102°45′E 103°96′E和纬度30°80′N 33°20′N。它占地大约23000公里<sup>2</sup>(整个岷江流域的16.9%),这条河长341公里。研究区域的位置如图<一个href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/fig1/" target="_blank">1</一个>。</p> <div class="partial-carousel-wrapper"> <div class="floats-partial-section"> <div class="floats-partial-content"> <div class="partial-carousel--full-image partial-carousel-5287f11ef4449e3cd76375df214b7e22"> <div class="partial-carousel--single-image"> <img loading="lazy" alt="" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/figures/1362708.fig.001.jpg"> <br> <strong></strong> </div> </div> </div> <div class="floats-partial-middle"> <div class="floats-partial-middle--thumbs"> <div class="partial-carousel-dots-5287f11ef4449e3cd76375df214b7e22 partial-carousel-thumbnail"> <button aria-label="Slide to " class="partial-carousel-dot"><img loading="lazy" alt="" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/thumbnails/1362708.fig.001_th.jpg"><br><strong></strong></button> </div> </div> <div class="floats-partial-middle--nav"> <div class="partial-carousel-next-prev-5287f11ef4449e3cd76375df214b7e22 partial-carousel-next-prev"> <button aria-label="Previous" class="carousel-prev"></button> <button aria-label="Next" class="carousel-next"></button> </div> </div> </div> <div class="floats-partial-footer"> <div class="floats-partial-caption"> <span class="caption-text">图</span> <a aria-label="View full page" class="caption-partial-url" href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/fig1/" title="" target="_blank"></a> </div> <div class="floats-partial-caption-text"> 研究区和测量站的位置。</div> </div> </div> </div> <h5 id="sec2.2">2.2。数据</h5> <p>有五个气象站(礼,汶川,茂县,松潘和Heishui)和一个水文站(紫坪铺)中可用的研究盆地,它们分布在研究区,如图<一个href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/fig1/" target="_blank">1</一个>。关于电台是总结在表的详细信息<一个href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/tab1/" target="_blank">1</一个>。高于6测量站的逐日降水数据收集从中国气象数据共享服务系统和四川省水文和水资源局从1960年到2015年。小缺失的数据被插入邻站数据的线性回归。每日价值总结获得降水的季节性和年度总数。区域降水量Thiessen多边形的方法获得的。本赛季在一年内被定义如下:冬季(12月、1月和2月)、弹簧(3月、4月和5月),夏季(6月、7月和8月)和秋季(9月、10月和11月)。</p> <div class="floats-partial-section partial-other-wrapper" data-section="tab1"> <div class="floats-partial-footer"> <div class="floats-partial-caption"> <span class="caption-text">表1</span> <a aria-label="View full page" class="caption-partial-url" href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/tab1/" title="" target="_blank"></a> </div> <div class="floats-partial-caption-text"> 测量站的详细信息。</div> <a class="table-thumb-overlay" href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/tab1" target="_blank" aria-label="View full page"></a> </div> </div> <h4 id="methodology">3所示。方法</h4> <h5 id="sec3.1">3.1。根据妈妈的统计参数估计</h5> <p>统计参数,均值和偏差系数(<span class="nowrap"> <svg height="11.9453pt" id="M1" style="vertical-align:-3.309401pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 13.3686 11.9453" width="13.3686pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"> <path d="M645 631C614 643 545 666 457 666C215 666 23 519 23 283C23 90 158 -16 337 -16C412 -16 489 2 522 10C543 39 590 127 606 167L580 181C519 89 459 18 348 18C201 18 122 136 122 287C122 464 244 632 435 632C544 632 602 595 608 472L639 475C643 526 645 581 645 631Z" id="g113-68"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,8.619,3.132)"> <path d="M219 86C216 168 211 250 206 337C201 410 189 448 163 448C131 448 79 396 43 344L60 322C91 359 110 375 118 375S132 358 136 298C141 238 152 81 155 -12H182C242 62 331 177 390 258C435 321 451 360 451 391C450 424 432 448 408 448C390 448 372 435 366 419C362 410 362 401 366 394C373 383 376 367 376 350C376 283 262 138 221 86H219Z" id="g185-40"></path> </g> </svg>)</span>季节性和年降水量的估计的方法(妈妈)<一个href="#B30">30.</一个>]。妈妈这里没有列出的公式。</p> <h5 id="sec3.2">3.2。趋势检测方法</h5> <h6 id="sec3.2.1">3.2.1之上。线性回归方法</h6> <p>线性回归方法是广泛用于确定气候系列的趋势(<一个href="#B31">31日</一个>]。在这项研究中,单一线性方程表示为对降水时间<span class="equation_break" id="EEq1"><span class="left_break" id="L2"></span><span class="middle_break"><span class="center_break" id="M2"> <svg height="13.9183pt" id="M2-1" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 64.454 13.9183" width="64.454pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g id="B2-1"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,9.288)"> <path d="M536 404C536 423 520 448 491 448C445 448 398 404 308 283L286 338C255 416 242 448 217 448C182 448 138 402 92 341L111 321C149 368 169 378 178 378C188 378 198 363 214 320L254 212C185 117 138 65 107 65C98 65 85 69 82 75C79 82 73 86 65 86C44 86 23 60 23 39C23 7 44 -12 71 -12C119 -12 168 33 265 177L306 61C321 17 347 -12 373 -12C413 -12 465 33 507 96L491 119C459 84 432 60 413 60C395 60 378 92 358 148L321 250C341 279 369 310 389 332C417 363 439 382 456 382C466 382 475 376 481 368C486 361 492 358 496 358C513 358 536 381 536 404Z" id="g113-121"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,10.9,9.288)"> <path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z" id="g117-34"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,22.16,9.288)"> <path d="M483 97L471 123C436 91 401 65 392 65C388 65 384 74 390 106C414 239 444 378 457 429L455 433C444 433 429 436 416 439C392 444 368 448 344 448C281 448 204 415 152 376C71 315 23 205 23 103C23 21 57 -12 85 -12C114 -12 149 6 185 34C231 70 285 119 329 183H331L309 81C292 0 308 -12 326 -12C350 -12 421 24 483 97ZM374 387C370 363 356 291 345 261C315 193 181 50 139 50C124 50 110 71 110 118C110 224 153 331 218 379C238 394 271 402 301 402C329 402 359 394 374 387Z" id="g113-98"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,31.65,9.288)"> <path d="M535 230V280H323V490H265V280H52V230H265V-3H323V230H535Z" id="g117-36"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,42.19,9.288)"> <path d="M452 333C452 398 425 448 375 448C329 448 235 404 140 292H138L229 683C233 701 234 712 225 712C208 712 149 686 66 677L64 652H97C135 652 140 651 129 598L38 167C23 96 29 57 44 33C60 7 98 -12 132 -12C169 -12 232 3 290 41C383 102 452 223 452 333ZM365 316C365 199 308 87 239 49C221 39 200 35 183 35C137 35 99 70 112 163C116 191 123 215 129 233C190 316 290 392 330 392C348 392 365 372 365 316Z" id="g113-99"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,51.19,9.288)"> <path d="M170 255C170 288 146 313 114 313S58 288 58 255C58 221 82 198 114 198S170 221 170 255Z" id="g113-46"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,57.06,9.288)"> <path d="M324 430H196L233 583L223 592L145 529L120 430H54L29 396L31 388H111L56 126C33 15 54 -12 77 -12C137 -12 214 57 250 95L233 119C208 92 155 59 138 59C126 59 120 70 131 125L186 390L298 394L324 430Z" id="g113-117"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,61.49,9.288)"> <path d="M95 130C70 130 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id="g190-42"></path> </g> </g> </svg></span></span>在哪里<svg height="8.02022pt" id="M3" style="vertical-align:-0.2063999pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -7.81382 4.54925 8.02022" width="4.54925pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-117"></use> </g> </svg>是时间变量,<svg height="6.1673pt" id="M4" style="vertical-align:-0.2063904pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -5.96091 7.39387 6.1673" width="7.39387pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-121"></use> </g> </svg>是观察到的降水时间价值<span class="nowrap"> <svg height="8.02022pt" id="M5" style="vertical-align:-0.2063999pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -7.81382 4.54925 8.02022" width="4.54925pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-117"></use> </g> </svg>,</span> <svg height="6.1673pt" id="M6" style="vertical-align:-0.2063904pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -5.96091 6.7023 6.1673" width="6.7023pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-98"></use> </g> </svg>是一个常数,然后呢<svg height="9.49473pt" id="M7" style="vertical-align:-0.2063999pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 6.21949 9.49473" width="6.21949pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-99"></use> </g> </svg>是斜率变化率表示。在细节,一个积极的价值<svg height="9.49473pt" id="M8" style="vertical-align:-0.2063999pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 6.21949 9.49473" width="6.21949pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-99"></use> </g> </svg>表明一个增加的趋势,一个负面的价值<svg height="9.49473pt" id="M9" style="vertical-align:-0.2063999pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 6.21949 9.49473" width="6.21949pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-99"></use> </g> </svg>显示一个下降的趋势。我们使用学生的<我>t</我>以及检查参数的显著性水平<span class="nowrap"> <svg height="9.49473pt" id="M10" style="vertical-align:-0.2063999pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 6.21949 9.49473" width="6.21949pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-99"></use> </g> </svg>,</span>这里没有列出细节。</p> <h6 id="sec3.2.2">3.2.2。Mann-Kendall测试的趋势</h6> <p>非参数Mann-Kendall(可)测试(<一个href="#B32">32</一个>,<一个href="#B33">33</一个>)已被广泛用于诊断时间序列的趋势。统计<svg height="8.8423pt" id="M11" style="vertical-align:-0.2064009pt" version="1.1" 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transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,4.5,9.25)"> <path d="M411 139C381 76 368 73 314 73H129L267 224C351 317 400 380 400 469C400 574 322 635 233 635C176 635 128 610 98 576L40 495L63 476C89 515 130 568 198 568C274 568 316 519 316 436C316 347 251 264 191 192C142 134 85 76 30 21V0H403C415 45 425 89 438 131L411 139Z" id="g190-243"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,10.54,9.25)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-42"></use> </g> </g> </svg></span></span>在哪里<svg height="9.25202pt" id="M13" style="vertical-align:-3.29111pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -5.96091 10.3843 9.25202" width="10.3843pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-121"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,7.202,3.132)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-106"></use> </g> </svg>和<svg height="11.4899pt" id="M14" style="vertical-align:-5.52899pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -5.96091 11.7544 11.4899" 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</svg></span></span><span class="right_break" id="R20"> <svg class="label" height="11.44pt" id="M20-2" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 14.898 11.44" width="14.898pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g id="B20-2"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,9.26)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-41"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,4.5,9.26)"> <path d="M130 550H367L393 615L386 623H101L63 323C82 331 123 342 165 342C275 342 328 277 328 188C328 107 283 40 201 40C141 40 99 72 78 91C69 99 59 98 51 91C39 81 30 67 29 58C28 48 33 37 46 24C60 10 104 -12 149 -12C203 -11 269 14 323 59C384 109 412 165 412 225C412 308 347 399 219 399C193 399 146 382 104 367L130 550Z" id="g190-161"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,10.4,9.26)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-42"></use> </g> </g> </svg></span></span>在1 <<svg height="8.8423pt" id="M21" style="vertical-align:-0.2064009pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 3.66193 8.8423" width="3.66193pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-106"></use> </g> </svg><<svg height="12.0653pt" id="M22" style="vertical-align:-3.4294pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 5.61923 12.0653" width="5.61923pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-107"></use> </g> </svg><<span class="nowrap"> <svg height="6.1673pt" id="M23" style="vertical-align:-0.2063904pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -5.96091 6.6501 6.1673" width="6.6501pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-111"></use> </g> </svg>。</span>一个正斜率值(<我>β</我>> 0)表示一个增加的趋势;一个负斜率值(<我>β</我>< 0)表示一个下降的趋势。</p> <h5 id="sec3.3">3.3。突然变化的试验方法</h5> <h6 id="sec3.3.1">3.3.1。Mann-Kendall突然变化的考验</h6> <p>时间序列构造等级系列<我>x</我>与<我>n</我>样品(<一个href="#B34">34</一个>,<一个href="#B35">35</一个>]:<span class="equation_break" id="EEq6"><span class="left_break" id="L24"></span><span class="middle_break"><span class="center_break" id="M24"> <svg height="37.9605pt" id="M24-1" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 53.098 37.9605" width="53.098pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g id="B24-1"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,22.717)"> <path d="M530 686C535 705 530 712 521 712C504 712 448 684 359 674L358 648H393C437 648 439 646 429 593L400 435C372 447 345 448 332 448C286 448 194 414 144 373C68 311 23 203 23 111C23 26 57 -12 91 -12C120 -12 147 3 188 29C227 54 290 102 341 170H343L322 71C308 6 320 -12 341 -12C373 -12 442 27 501 96L485 120C455 91 422 67 408 67C401 67 401 76 404 91C440 294 479 473 530 686ZM387 375L355 241C326 187 200 53 142 53C126 53 109 73 109 130C109 217 154 337 218 381C240 396 265 404 297 404S372 390 387 375Z" id="g113-101"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,7.15,25.848)"> <path d="M485 418C485 434 469 451 441 451C389 451 312 387 255 335C221 304 194 278 159 242H157L259 678C264 698 264 710 255 710C242 710 183 681 96 673L90 643L128 642C165 641 171 640 162 602L24 -5L31 -12C51 -4 81 4 110 9L145 181C154 195 180 220 205 242C233 170 263 106 291 53C318 1 335 -12 360 -12C383 -12 425 0 483 82L463 105C437 79 411 57 400 57C388 57 378 68 355 110C329 156 288 244 268 298C299 333 355 376 405 376C426 376 440 373 448 368C453 365 465 368 468 373C477 386 485 405 485 418Z" id="g50-108"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,15.93,22.717)"> <use xlink:href="#g117-34"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,31.45,7.952)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-108"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,27.19,22.723)"> <use xlink:href="#g119-73"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,27.48,36.366)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-106"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,30.03,36.366)"> <use xlink:href="#g54-34"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,35.59,36.366)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-50"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,40.36,22.717)"> <path d="M766 88L752 113C719 83 690 64 681 64C674 64 672 74 679 103L724 292C758 436 724 448 701 448C680 448 666 442 639 429C594 407 514 350 441 252H439L447 289C476 423 450 448 419 448C398 448 379 441 355 427C307 400 234 344 162 249H160L180 324C203 409 197 448 170 448C144 448 82 413 23 349L35 321C57 343 96 374 108 374C115 374 117 371 111 341C87 227 57 112 24 -6L32 -12C53 -4 81 4 108 6C119 68 134 128 149 171C177 229 309 383 364 383C387 383 388 355 373 282C354 190 330 92 303 -6L309 -12C332 -4 356 3 386 6C396 63 411 122 424 171C458 236 590 383 642 383C658 383 664 369 652 315L603 91C587 20 593 -12 619 -12C642 -12 708 23 766 88Z" id="g113-110"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,50.55,25.848)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-106"></use> </g> </g> </svg> <svg height="37.9605pt" id="M24-2" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 63.404 37.9605" width="63.404pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g id="B24-2"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,22.899)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-41"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,4.52,22.717)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-51"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,14.39,22.717)"> <path d="M531 71V127L115 310L531 494V550L57 335V285L531 71ZM531 -40V10H57V-40H531Z" id="g117-93"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,25.65,22.717)"> <path d="M480 416C480 431 465 448 438 448C388 448 312 383 252 330C217 299 188 273 155 237H153L257 680C262 700 263 712 253 712C240 712 183 684 97 674L92 648L126 647C166 646 172 645 163 606L23 -6L29 -12C51 -5 77 2 107 8C115 62 130 128 142 180C153 193 179 220 204 241C231 170 259 106 288 54C317 0 336 -12 358 -12C381 -12 423 2 477 80L460 100C434 74 408 54 398 54C385 54 374 65 351 107C326 154 282 241 263 299C296 332 351 377 403 377C424 377 436 372 445 368C449 366 456 368 462 375C472 386 480 402 480 416Z" id="g113-108"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,35.82,22.717)"> <use xlink:href="#g117-93"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,47.09,22.717)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-111"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,53.61,22.899)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-42"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,60.44,22.717)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-45"></use> </g> </g> </svg></span></span><span class="right_break" id="R24"> <svg class="label" height="11.44pt" id="M24-3" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 15.428 11.44" width="15.428pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g id="B24-3"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,9.26)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-41"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,4.49,9.26)"> <path d="M143 344C173 483 265 547 326 576C363 593 402 605 434 611L429 641C389 634 343 623 301 608C195 570 43 456 43 236C43 81 135 -12 245 -12C368 -12 453 88 453 208C453 310 380 393 273 393C253 393 232 386 211 376L143 344ZM234 338C325 338 367 255 367 172C367 102 346 21 264 21C184 21 132 113 132 239C132 267 133 291 138 312C164 327 197 338 234 338Z" id="g190-227"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,10.93,9.26)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-42"></use> </g> </g> </svg></span></span>在哪里<span class="equation_break" id="EEq7"><span class="left_break" id="L25"></span><span class="middle_break"><span class="center_break" id="M25"> <svg height="37.2364pt" id="M25-1" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 107.124 37.2364" width="107.124pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g id="B25-1"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,21.946)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-110"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,10.19,25.077)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-106"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,16.88,21.946)"> <use xlink:href="#g117-34"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,28.14,21.946)"> <path d="M575 -1135V-1097C446 -1080 430 -1007 430 -926L446 62C446 159 411 244 325 269V273C412 296 446 381 446 476C446 805 430 1149 430 1473C430 1551 446 1620 575 1637V1675C482 1675 346 1650 346 1441L354 448C354 386 347 305 158 294V248C347 237 354 156 354 94L346 -909C346 -1114 482 -1135 575 -1135Z" id="g119-175"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,37.43,11.039)"> <use xlink:href="#g117-36"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,45.06,11.039)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-50"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,51.3,11.039)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-45"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,67.38,11.039)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-121"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,74.58,14.171)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-106"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,81.27,11.039)"> <use xlink:href="#g117-92"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,92.53,11.039)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-121"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,99.73,14.171)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-107"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,104.16,11.039)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-45"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,37.43,31.679)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-49"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,43.67,31.679)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-45"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,67.38,31.679)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-121"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,74.58,34.811)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-106"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,81.27,31.679)"> <use xlink:href="#g117-93"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,92.53,31.679)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-121"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,99.73,34.811)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-107"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,104.16,31.679)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-45"></use> </g> </g> </svg> <svg height="37.2364pt" id="M25-2" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 116.114 37.2364" width="116.114pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g id="B25-2"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,21.946)"> <path d="M332 -241C217 -138 149 60 149 271C149 483 216 680 332 783L312 808C148 686 74 491 74 272V271C74 50 148 -146 312 -266L332 -241Z" id="g119-5"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,5.02,21.946)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-50"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,14.9,21.946)"> <use xlink:href="#g117-93"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,26.16,21.946)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-107"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,35.29,21.946)"> <use xlink:href="#g117-93"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,46.55,21.946)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-106"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,50.1,21.946)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-45"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,59.6,21.946)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-50"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,69.48,21.946)"> <use xlink:href="#g117-93"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,80.74,21.946)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-106"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,87.92,21.946)"> <use xlink:href="#g117-93"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,99.18,21.946)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-111"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,105.71,21.946)"> <path d="M311 271V272C311 491 237 686 73 808L53 783C169 680 236 483 236 271C236 60 168 -138 53 -241L73 -266C237 -146 311 50 311 271Z" id="g119-6"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,113.15,21.946)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-47"></use> </g> </g> </svg> <svg class="alt_equation" height="60.6608pt" id="I25" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 226.79 60.6608" width="226.79pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <use transform="matrix(1 0 0 1 0 0)" xlink:href="#B25-1"></use> <use transform="matrix(1 0 0 1 110.66 34.75)" xlink:href="#B25-2"></use> </svg></span></span><span class="right_break" id="R25"> <svg class="label" height="11.44pt" id="M25-3" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 15.028 11.44" width="15.028pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g id="B25-3"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,9.26)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-41"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,4.5,9.26)"> <path d="M430 623H48C43 580 39 534 30 478H57C80 544 84 550 152 550H369C286 366 187 178 74 -1L81 -12L156 -2C249 201 343 408 438 611L430 623Z" id="g190-223"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,10.53,9.26)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-42"></use> </g> </g> </svg> <svg class="alt_label" height="60.6608pt" id="IL25" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 15.09 60.6608" width="15.09pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <use transform="matrix(1 0 0 1 0 24.4)" xlink:href="#B25-3"></use> </svg></span></span></p> <p> <svg height="12.5794pt" id="M26" style="vertical-align:-3.29107pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 12.4238 12.5794" width="12.4238pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-101"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,7.15,3.132)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-108"></use> </g> </svg>可以视为零假设下正态分布<svg height="11.927pt" id="M27" style="vertical-align:-3.291101pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 15.1589 11.927" width="15.1589pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"> <path d="M828 650H570L564 622C646 614 650 609 634 524L604 366H253L281 524C296 608 308 615 382 622L388 650H132L126 622C211 615 214 609 198 524L121 122C106 42 102 35 23 28L17 0H276L282 28C196 35 191 40 206 122L243 324H597L559 123C544 42 537 35 452 28L446 0H710L716 28C632 35 628 43 643 122L719 524C735 610 741 615 822 622L828 650Z" id="g113-73"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,10.075,3.132)"> <path d="M245 635C92 635 37 457 37 312C37 149 91 -12 244 -12C395 -12 449 166 449 312C449 469 395 635 245 635ZM243 598C332 598 358 454 358 312C358 173 334 26 245 26C158 26 128 174 128 313S152 598 243 598Z" id="g50-49"></path> </g> </svg>这一趋势不发生,和的均值和方差<svg height="12.5794pt" id="M28" style="vertical-align:-3.29107pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 12.4238 12.5794" width="12.4238pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-101"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,7.15,3.132)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-108"></use> </g> </svg>可以计算如下:<span class="equation_break" id="EEq8"><span class="left_break" id="L29"></span><span class="middle_break"><span class="center_break" id="M29"> <svg height="63.1662pt" id="M29-1" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 96.874 63.1662" width="96.874pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g id="B29-1"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,17.796)"> <path d="M593 650H142L136 622C219 616 224 611 209 531L130 120C114 39 108 34 23 28L17 0H501C518 32 557 130 568 158L540 169C519 132 495 93 469 70C439 43 409 35 332 35C272 35 241 37 225 50C211 61 211 89 222 149L253 320H350C441 320 443 312 441 239H471L510 434H481C455 366 448 358 360 358H260L303 572C311 613 312 615 348 615H431C509 615 522 603 532 581C544 555 546 531 545 491L574 493C583 555 592 631 593 650Z" id="g113-70"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,10.19,17.796)"> <use xlink:href="#g119-5"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,15.21,17.796)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-101"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,22.36,20.928)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-108"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,27.51,17.796)"> <use xlink:href="#g119-6"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,36.19,17.796)"> <use xlink:href="#g117-34"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,48.65,9.288)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-108"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,57.37,9.471)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-41"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,61.88,9.288)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-108"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,71.33,9.288)"> <use xlink:href="#g117-33"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,81.86,9.288)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-50"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,88.1,9.471)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-42"></use> </g> <rect height="0.65243" width="44.0698" x="48.65" y="14.142"></rect> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,67.55,27.022)"> <path d="M456 178V225H360V632H320C217 496 115 347 20 206V178H280V106C280 40 276 34 189 27V0H445V27C364 34 360 39 360 106V178H456ZM280 225H82C149 335 214 431 278 520H280V225Z" id="g113-53"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,93.91,17.796)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-45"></use> </g> </g> </svg> <svg height="63.1662pt" id="M29-2" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 142.604 63.1662" width="142.604pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g id="B29-2"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,53.734)"> <path d="M743 375C743 570 607 650 407 650H136L130 622C214 612 220 606 204 526L125 122C110 43 105 36 24 27L17 0H250C382 0 482 23 571 76C680 141 743 248 743 375ZM644 379C644 188 520 36 305 36C277 36 249 38 229 46C205 55 202 71 212 126L293 553C300 588 306 600 317 606C330 613 356 617 390 617C547 617 644 537 644 379Z" id="g113-69"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,12.14,53.734)"> <use xlink:href="#g119-5"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,17.17,53.734)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-101"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,24.32,56.866)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-108"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,29.46,53.734)"> <use xlink:href="#g119-6"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,38.15,53.734)"> <use xlink:href="#g117-34"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,50.6,45.226)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-108"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,59.32,45.409)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-41"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,63.84,45.226)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-108"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,73.28,45.226)"> <use xlink:href="#g117-33"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,83.82,45.226)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-50"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,90.06,45.409)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-42"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,96.83,45.409)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-41"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,101.34,45.226)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-51"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,107.58,45.226)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-108"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,117.03,45.226)"> <use xlink:href="#g117-36"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,127.56,45.226)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-54"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,133.8,45.409)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-42"></use> </g> <rect height="0.65243" width="87.8396" x="50.6" y="50.081"></rect> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,88.26,62.96)"> <path d="M447 623H65C61 580 56 530 47 475H76C100 541 106 550 172 550H388C308 376 196 170 91 -1L98 -12L172 -2C268 204 360 408 455 611L447 623Z" id="g113-56"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,94.5,62.96)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-51"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,139.64,53.734)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-47"></use> </g> </g> </svg></span></span><span class="right_break" id="R29"> <svg class="label" height="11.44pt" id="M29-3" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 15.168 11.44" width="15.168pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g id="B29-3"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,9.26)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-41"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,4.5,9.26)"> <path d="M246 635C138 635 67 554 67 471C67 401 116 348 178 315C143 296 103 268 87 252C65 231 42 203 42 157C42 50 128 -12 234 -12C319 -12 432 52 432 169C432 256 370 303 299 344C347 376 373 399 381 408C399 430 408 459 408 487C408 569 341 635 246 635ZM235 603C284 603 334 567 334 483C334 420 306 383 273 358C202 393 142 427 142 503C142 552 173 603 235 603ZM245 21C179 21 122 70 122 163C122 219 155 270 204 300C279 263 352 219 352 144C352 66 308 21 245 21Z" id="g190-152"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,10.67,9.26)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-42"></use> </g> </g> </svg></span></span></p> <p>统计<svg height="11.8161pt" id="M30" style="vertical-align:-3.291121pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.52498 21.7537 11.8161" width="21.7537pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"> <path d="M716 650H478V622C549 617 570 605 575 566C579 535 582 493 582 401V326C582 161 537 40 393 40C269 40 205 133 205 294V521C205 611 213 617 291 622V650H33V622C111 615 120 611 120 521V272C120 154 148 80 208 34C252 0 309 -14 368 -14C434 -14 501 7 548 55C605 116 623 201 623 319V401C623 493 626 536 629 563C633 605 656 618 716 622V650Z" id="g190-86"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,9.568,0)"> <path d="M493 503C489 551 484 614 483 650H43V622C120 616 128 611 128 525V126C128 40 120 34 40 28V0H312V28C221 34 213 40 213 126V307H316C407 307 412 296 424 227H453V420H424C412 355 407 346 316 346H213V584C213 613 216 616 246 616H322C398 616 419 607 436 579C449 559 455 539 464 499L493 503Z" id="g190-71"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,16.507,3.132)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-108"></use> </g> </svg>是计算<span class="equation_break" id="EEq9"><span class="left_break" id="L31"></span><span class="middle_break"><span class="center_break" id="M31"> <svg height="41.7512pt" id="M31-1" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 95.995 41.7512" width="95.995pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g id="B31-1"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,20.093)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-86"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,9.57,20.093)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-71"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,16.51,23.224)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-108"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,25.29,20.093)"> <use xlink:href="#g117-34"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,37.75,10.593)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-101"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,44.9,13.725)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-108"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,52.95,10.593)"> <use xlink:href="#g117-33"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,63.49,10.593)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-70"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,73.67,10.593)"> <use xlink:href="#g119-5"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,78.7,10.593)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-101"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,85.85,13.725)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-108"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,90.99,10.593)"> <use xlink:href="#g119-6"></use> </g> <rect height="0.65243" width="58.3837" x="37.75" y="16.439"></rect> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,44.56,34.029)"> <path d="M772 1098H727L517 -348H515L294 324L133 259L147 224L245 263L524 -588H526L772 1098Z" id="g119-122"></path> </g> <rect height="0.65243" width="34.5462" x="54.77" y="19.701"></rect> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,54.77,34.763)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-69"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,66.91,34.763)"> <use xlink:href="#g119-5"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,71.94,34.763)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-101"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,79.09,37.894)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-108"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,84.23,34.763)"> <use xlink:href="#g119-6"></use> </g> </g> </svg> <svg height="41.7512pt" id="M31-2" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 63.394 41.7512" width="63.394pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g id="B31-2"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,20.275)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-41"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,4.51,20.093)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-50"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,14.38,20.093)"> <use xlink:href="#g117-93"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,25.64,20.093)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-108"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,35.82,20.093)"> <use xlink:href="#g117-93"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,47.08,20.093)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-111"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,53.6,20.275)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-42"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,60.43,20.093)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-45"></use> </g> </g> </svg> <svg class="alt_equation" height="41.7512pt" id="I31" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 172.86 41.7512" width="172.86pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <use transform="matrix(1 0 0 1 0 0)" xlink:href="#B31-1"></use> <use transform="matrix(1 0 0 1 109.47 0)" xlink:href="#B31-2"></use> </svg></span></span><span class="right_break" id="R31"> <svg class="label" height="11.44pt" id="M31-3" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 15.338 11.44" width="15.338pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g id="B31-3"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,9.26)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-41"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,4.5,9.26)"> <path d="M247 635C117 635 41 518 41 422C41 317 114 239 220 239C239 239 256 244 278 255L348 290C315 139 207 37 63 13L67 -15C93 -15 155 -5 207 17C343 71 443 203 443 385C443 520 371 635 247 635ZM231 602C331 602 355 476 355 390C355 371 354 349 351 325C334 310 298 294 261 294C177 294 128 369 128 457C128 516 155 602 231 602Z" id="g190-193"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,10.84,9.26)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-42"></use> </g> </g> </svg> <svg class="alt_label" height="41.7512pt" id="IL31" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 15.4 41.7512" width="15.4pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <use transform="matrix(1 0 0 1 0 14.94)" xlink:href="#B31-3"></use> </svg></span></span></p> <p>为了搜索突然变化,必须执行一个类似的反向时间序列分析。一个逆行<svg height="11.8161pt" id="M32" style="vertical-align:-3.291121pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.52498 22.5236 11.8161" width="22.5236pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-86"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,9.568,0)"> <path d="M372 352C427 368 507 407 507 502C507 548 486 592 451 616C420 638 376 650 301 650H44V622C124 616 128 610 128 527V123C128 40 122 34 36 28V0H257C336 0 402 12 453 40C512 72 548 124 548 191C548 291 471 335 372 350V352ZM213 362V558C213 591 216 602 226 608C235 614 258 618 282 618C377 618 415 558 415 490C415 406 369 362 260 362H213ZM213 328H258C380 328 450 283 450 181C450 76 377 35 296 34C231 34 213 53 213 125V328Z" id="g190-67"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,17.277,3.132)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-108"></use> </g> </svg>表示为<span class="equation_break" id="EEq10"><span class="left_break" id="L33"></span><span class="middle_break"><span class="center_break" id="M33"> <svg height="18.3157pt" id="M33-1" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 146.149 18.3157" width="146.149pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g id="B33-1"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,12.485)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-86"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,9.56,12.485)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-67"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,17.27,15.617)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-108"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,26.05,12.485)"> <use xlink:href="#g117-34"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,37.32,12.485)"> <use xlink:href="#g117-33"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,44.95,12.485)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-86"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,54.51,12.485)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-71"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,61.45,15.617)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-108"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0065,0,0,-0.0065,66.09,12.42)"> <path d="M323 549L316 585C302 600 218 636 190 624L84 81L142 54L323 549Z" id="g176-31"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,69.58,12.485)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-45"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,74.73,12.485)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-108"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,81.27,6.222)"> <path d="M310 541L304 571C290 586 211 619 185 610L80 76L131 52L310 541Z" id="g50-31"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,88.69,12.485)"> <use xlink:href="#g117-34"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,99.96,12.485)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-111"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,109.39,12.485)"> <use xlink:href="#g117-36"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,119.93,12.485)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-50"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,129.07,12.485)"> <use xlink:href="#g117-33"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,139.61,12.485)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-108"></use> </g> </g> </svg> <svg height="18.3157pt" id="M33-2" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 102.974 18.3157" width="102.974pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g id="B33-2"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,12.485)"> <use xlink:href="#g119-133"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,5.78,12.485)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-108"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,12.32,12.485)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-45"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,17.46,12.485)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-108"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,24,6.222)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-31"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,31.43,12.485)"> <use xlink:href="#g117-34"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,42.69,12.485)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-50"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,48.93,12.485)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-45"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,54.07,12.485)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-51"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,60.31,12.485)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-45"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,65.45,12.485)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-46"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,71.32,12.485)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-46"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,77.19,12.485)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-46"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,80.16,12.485)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-45"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,85.3,12.485)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-111"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,91.83,12.485)"> <use xlink:href="#g119-134"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,100.01,12.485)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-47"></use> </g> </g> </svg> <svg class="alt_equation" height="43.105pt" id="I33" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 251.57 43.105" width="251.57pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <use transform="matrix(1 0 0 1 0 -0.53)" xlink:href="#B33-1"></use> <use transform="matrix(1 0 0 1 148.58 24.79)" xlink:href="#B33-2"></use> </svg></span></span><span class="right_break" id="R33"> <svg class="label" height="11.44pt" id="M33-3" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 19.728 11.44" width="19.728pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g id="B33-3"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,9.25)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-41"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,4.49,9.25)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-213"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,8.82,9.25)"> <path d="M248 635C97 635 43 457 43 311C43 153 97 -12 247 -12S450 166 450 312C450 466 397 635 248 635ZM246 603C337 603 361 452 361 312S337 20 248 20S132 172 132 313C132 452 156 603 246 603Z" id="g190-254"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,15.23,9.25)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-42"></use> </g> </g> </svg> <svg class="alt_label" height="43.105pt" id="IL33" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 19.81 43.105" width="19.81pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <use transform="matrix(1 0 0 1 0 15.62)" xlink:href="#B33-3"></use> </svg></span></span></p> <p>的交点<svg height="11.8161pt" id="M34" style="vertical-align:-3.291121pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.52498 21.7537 11.8161" width="21.7537pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-86"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,9.568,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-71"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,16.507,3.132)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-108"></use> </g> </svg>和<svg height="11.8161pt" id="M35" style="vertical-align:-3.291121pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.52498 22.5236 11.8161" width="22.5236pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-86"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,9.568,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-67"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,17.277,3.132)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-108"></use> </g> </svg>坐落在信心行之间突然发生变化的时候。典型的置信水平95%是利用检测的降水系列。</p> <h6 id="sec3.3.2">3.3.2。序列聚类分析</h6> <p>序列聚类分析是一种有效的方法估计的突变点<我>τ</我>在水文时间序列。序列聚类分析的实质是寻找最优分割点(<一个href="#B36">36</一个>,<一个href="#B37">37</一个>]。计算目标函数<span class="equation_break" id="EEq11"><span class="left_break" id="L36"></span><span class="middle_break"><span class="center_break" id="M36"> <svg height="37.299pt" id="M36-1" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 96.088 37.299" width="96.088pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g id="B36-1"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,21.946)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-84"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,9.76,21.946)"> <use xlink:href="#g117-34"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,27.8,21.946)"> <path d="M797 0V26C739 32 732 36 732 103V296C732 394 682 449 605 449C576 449 550 437 529 423C504 407 475 389 446 366C425 418 382 449 334 449C303 449 279 437 253 421C222 403 201 385 180 371V452C135 432 85 419 41 411V388C99 379 102 374 102 310V103C102 38 93 32 27 26V0H238V26C189 32 180 38 180 103V338C210 363 250 390 289 390C351 390 377 348 377 275V103C377 37 368 32 306 26V0H520V26C465 32 456 38 456 101V296C456 314 455 326 453 338C491 369 529 390 565 390C628 390 653 345 653 274V107C653 36 642 32 583 26V0H797Z" id="g121-107"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,38.45,21.946)"> <path d="M135 536C164 536 186 560 186 587C186 617 164 639 136 639C109 639 85 617 85 587C85 560 109 536 135 536ZM252 0V26C188 32 181 38 181 106V451C138 433 90 420 39 412V388C99 379 102 374 102 312V106C102 38 95 32 32 26V0H252Z" id="g121-103"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,41.93,21.946)"> <use xlink:href="#g121-108"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,21.03,29.912)"> <path d="M414 144C384 79 371 75 317 75H135L276 221C367 316 408 376 408 465C408 570 327 635 237 635C179 635 131 609 100 575L42 494L67 471C94 510 138 565 205 565C277 565 321 517 321 435C321 348 258 270 195 195C146 137 88 81 33 26V0H411C423 44 433 88 446 135L414 144Z" id="g50-51"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,25.46,29.912)"> <path d="M552 72V131L122 319L552 507V566L59 344V293L552 72ZM552 -41V12H59V-41H552Z" id="g54-93"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,31.02,29.912)"> <path d="M487 458L455 460C436 434 425 433 397 433C331 433 279 437 225 437C103 437 52 374 24 338L49 312C100 363 152 379 229 374C210 308 184 213 163 117C158 94 156 74 156 58C156 6 180 -12 211 -12C261 -12 313 27 348 68L332 99C307 76 285 64 267 64C252 64 236 86 250 148L301 373C320 373 344 369 364 369C399 369 435 370 450 372C458 386 470 411 487 458Z" id="g50-241"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,35.56,29.912)"> <use xlink:href="#g54-93"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,41.12,29.912)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-111"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,45.78,29.912)"> <use xlink:href="#g54-33"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,51.34,29.912)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-50"></use> </g> <g 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xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g id="B36-2"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,21.946)"> <use xlink:href="#g117-34"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,15.57,7.181)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-241"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,11.26,21.952)"> <use xlink:href="#g119-73"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,11.55,35.595)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-106"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,14.1,35.595)"> <use xlink:href="#g54-34"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,19.66,35.595)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-50"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,26.61,21.946)"> <use xlink:href="#g119-5"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,31.63,21.946)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-121"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,38.83,25.077)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-106"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,44.8,21.946)"> <use xlink:href="#g117-33"></use> </g> <rect height="0.65243" width="7.29424" x="55.33" y="13.425"></rect> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,55.33,21.946)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-121"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,62.63,25.077)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-241"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,67.68,21.946)"> <use xlink:href="#g119-6"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,72.76,14.645)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-51"></use> </g> </g> </svg> <svg height="37.299pt" id="M36-3" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 111.314 37.299" width="111.314pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g id="B36-3"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,21.946)"> <use xlink:href="#g117-36"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,19.56,7.181)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-111"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,15.32,21.952)"> <use xlink:href="#g119-73"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,10.54,35.595)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-106"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,13.09,35.595)"> <use xlink:href="#g54-34"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,18.65,35.595)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-241"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,23.19,35.595)"> <use xlink:href="#g54-36"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,28.75,35.595)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-50"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,35.44,21.946)"> <use xlink:href="#g119-5"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,40.47,21.946)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-121"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,47.67,25.077)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-106"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,53.63,21.946)"> <use xlink:href="#g117-33"></use> </g> <rect height="0.65243" width="7.29424" x="64.17" y="13.425"></rect> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,64.17,21.946)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-121"></use> </g> <g 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class="label" height="11.44pt" id="M36-4" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 17.788 11.44" width="17.788pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g id="B36-4"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,9.26)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-41"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,4.5,9.26)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-213"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,8.9,9.26)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-213"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,13.29,9.26)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-42"></use> </g> </g> </svg></span></span>在这,<span class="nowrap"> <svg height="14.5524pt" id="M37" style="vertical-align:-3.9435pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -10.6089 91.8593 14.5524" width="91.8593pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <rect height="0.65243" width="7.29424" x="0" y="-8.52081"></rect> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-121"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,7.294,3.132)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-241"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,15.982,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g117-34"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,27.245,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-41"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,31.743,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-50"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,37.983,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-48"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,43.344,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-241"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,49.626,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-42"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,56.303,.007)"> <use xlink:href="#g119-65"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,66.09,-6.394)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-241"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,66.09,3.784)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-106"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,68.638,3.784)"> <use xlink:href="#g54-34"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,74.198,3.784)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-50"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,81.354,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-121"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,88.556,3.132)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-106"></use> </g> </svg>,</span><span class="nowrap"> <svg height="14.662pt" id="M38" style="vertical-align:-4.0531pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -10.6089 132.277 14.662" width="132.277pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <rect height="0.65243" width="7.29424" x="0" y="-8.52081"></rect> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-121"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,7.294,3.132)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-111"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,11.954,3.132)"> <use xlink:href="#g54-33"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,17.514,3.132)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-241"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,26.24,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g117-34"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,37.503,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-41"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,42.001,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-50"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,48.241,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-48"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,53.602,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-111"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,63.033,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g117-33"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,73.57,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-241"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,79.852,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-42"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,86.529,.007)"> <use xlink:href="#g119-65"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,96.316,-6.394)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-111"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,96.316,3.784)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-106"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,98.864,3.784)"> <use xlink:href="#g54-34"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,104.424,3.784)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-241"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,108.967,3.784)"> <use xlink:href="#g54-36"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,114.527,3.784)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-50"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,121.719,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-121"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,128.921,3.132)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-106"></use> </g> </svg>。</span></p> <p>当<svg height="8.8423pt" id="M39" style="vertical-align:-0.2064009pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 6.25863 8.8423" width="6.25863pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-84"></use> </g> </svg>是最小值,其对应的吗<我>τ</我>最优分割点,这是最可能的变化。</p> <h5 id="sec3.4">3.4。Morlet小波分析</h5> <p>小波分析是用来检测时间系列(<一个href="#B37">37</一个>]。对时间序列<我>f</我>(<我>t</我>),计算连续小波变换<span class="equation_break" id="EEq12"><span class="left_break" id="L40"></span><span class="middle_break"><span class="center_break" id="M40"> <svg height="30.1pt" id="M40-1" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 46.178 30.1" width="46.178pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g id="B40-1"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,18.593)"> <path d="M962 650H739L732 622L760 619C812 613 819 604 798 552C760 457 671 267 606 131H604L511 638H480L237 131H233L183 554C177 607 183 614 226 619L248 622L257 650H24L17 622C88 615 92 611 103 524L173 -11H203L450 491H453L543 -11H575L839 529C882 609 886 613 953 622L962 650Z" id="g113-88"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,10.78,21.725)"> <path d="M620 667C620 684 593 710 552 710C515 710 459 687 409 634C360 582 334 506 320 433H247L215 400L220 388H310L259 80C224 -129 199 -161 185 -174C175 -183 160 -192 141 -192C123 -192 90 -181 75 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<use xlink:href="#g117-34"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,11.27,18.835)"> <path d="M162 -163V703H101V-163H162Z" id="g113-9"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,14.7,18.593)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-98"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,21.28,18.835)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-9"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,24.73,12.33)"> <use xlink:href="#g54-33"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,30.29,12.33)"> <path d="M309 -142C211 -61 151 99 151 271S210 601 309 683L288 710C141 611 75 451 75 272V271C75 90 141 -72 288 -169L309 -142Z" id="g50-41"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,33.55,12.33)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-50"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,37.98,12.33)"> <path d="M381 704H317L48 -163H112L381 704Z" id="g50-48"></path> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,41.89,12.33)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-51"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,46.32,12.33)"> <path 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version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 168.07 79.3954" width="168.07pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <use transform="matrix(1 0 0 1 0 -5.81)" xlink:href="#B40-1"></use> <use transform="matrix(1 0 0 1 49.87 -5.81)" xlink:href="#B40-2"></use> <use transform="matrix(1 0 0 1 12.87 27.176)" xlink:href="#B40-3"></use> <use transform="matrix(1 0 0 1 18.74 27.18)" xlink:href="#B40-4"></use> <use transform="matrix(1 0 0 1 91.94 56.84)" xlink:href="#B40-5"></use> </svg></span></span><span class="right_break" id="R40"> <svg class="label" height="11.44pt" id="M40-6" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 19.468 11.44" width="19.468pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g id="B40-6"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,9.26)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-41"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,4.5,9.26)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-213"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,8.93,9.26)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-243"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,14.97,9.26)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-42"></use> </g> </g> </svg> <svg class="alt_label" height="79.3954pt" id="IL40" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 19.55 79.3954" width="19.55pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <use transform="matrix(1 0 0 1 0 33.77)" xlink:href="#B40-6"></use> </svg></span></span>在哪里<svg height="14.8173pt" id="M41" style="vertical-align:-5.52897pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 44.204 14.8173" width="44.204pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-88"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,10.777,3.132)"> <use xlink:href="#g50-103"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,17.158,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-41"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,21.656,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-98"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,28.236,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-45"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,33.379,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-99"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,39.48,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-42"></use> </g> </svg>小波变换系数,<svg height="12.7178pt" id="M42" style="vertical-align:-3.42947pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 22.1129 12.7178" width="22.1129pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-245"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,8.504,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-41"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,13.002,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-117"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,17.435,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-42"></use> </g> </svg>是小波的母亲,<svg height="13.4746pt" id="M43" style="vertical-align:-3.4295pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -10.0451 22.1129 13.4746" width="22.1129pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <rect height="0.65243" width="8.53389" x="0" y="-9.34288"></rect> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-245"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,8.534,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-41"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,13.032,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-117"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,17.465,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-42"></use> </g> </svg>的复共轭功能吗<span class="nowrap"> <svg height="12.7178pt" id="M44" style="vertical-align:-3.42947pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 22.1129 12.7178" width="22.1129pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-245"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,8.504,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-41"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,13.002,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-117"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,17.435,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-42"></use> </g> </svg>,</span><i>一个</我>比例因子,<我>b</我>是一个时间参数。在这项研究中,我们选择Morlet母小波的小波函数。Morlet小波函数表示为<span class="equation_break" id="EEq13"><span class="left_break" id="L45"></span><span class="middle_break"><span class="center_break" id="M45"> <svg height="18.4918pt" id="M45-1" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 83.774 18.4918" width="83.774pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g id="B45-1"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,14.527)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-245"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,10.68,14.71)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-41"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,15.19,14.527)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-117"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,19.63,14.71)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-42"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,27.79,14.527)"> <use xlink:href="#g117-34"></use> </g> <g 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transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,80.81,14.527)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-47"></use> </g> </g> </svg></span></span><span class="right_break" id="R45"> <svg class="label" height="11.44pt" id="M45-2" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 19.258 11.44" width="19.258pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g id="B45-2"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,9.25)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-41"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,4.49,9.25)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-213"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,8.89,9.25)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-232"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,14.76,9.25)"> <use xlink:href="#g190-42"></use> </g> </g> </svg></span></span></p> <h4 id="results-and-discussion">4所示。结果与讨论</h4> <h5 id="sec4.1">4.1。基本统计参数的变化</h5> <p>基本的统计参数(均值和<我>C</我><sub>v</sub>)的年度和季节(春、夏、秋、冬季)沉淀获得了6个测量站和UMR 56年(期间表<一个href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/tab2/" target="_blank">2</一个>)。</p> <div class="floats-partial-section partial-other-wrapper" data-section="tab2"> <div class="floats-partial-footer"> <div class="floats-partial-caption"> <span class="caption-text">表2</span> <a aria-label="View full page" class="caption-partial-url" href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/tab2/" title="" target="_blank"></a> </div> <div class="floats-partial-caption-text"> 季节性和年降水量的统计参数。</div> <a class="table-thumb-overlay" href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/tab2" target="_blank" aria-label="View full page"></a> </div> </div> <p>在年度基础上,UMR降水是不均匀的空间,增加从东北到西南上游和下游(图<一个href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/fig2/" target="_blank">2 (e)</一个>);降水是获得最大价值的紫坪铺(1179毫米)在南方,取得最小值的平均降水茂县东南(475毫米)。的<svg height="11.9453pt" id="M46" style="vertical-align:-3.309401pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 13.3686 11.9453" width="13.3686pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"> <use xlink:href="#g113-68"></use> </g> <g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,8.619,3.132)"> <use xlink:href="#g185-40"></use> </g> </svg>变化从0.11(松潘)0.20(紫坪铺)整个盆地的平均值为0.10,这表明年际变化研究中是稳定的区域(图<一个href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/fig3/" target="_blank">3</一个>)。图<一个href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/fig4/" target="_blank">4</一个>介绍了年降水量的年代际变化。UMR较高的年平均降雨量在1960年代,1980年代,1990年代,2010 - 2015年和降低在2000年代和1970年代。特别是在2000年代,年平均降雨量达到最小值,将近47.8毫米低于680毫米的年际水平。在2010 - 2015年,它达到最高的价值,比平均值高22.8毫米在研究时期,这是符合相应的研究(<一个href="#B38">38</一个>]。此外,十年平均降水量达到最低在2000年代和2010 - 2015年期间增加测量站。初步的结论是,在研究区降水相对异常在21世纪。</p> <div class="partial-carousel-wrapper"> <div class="floats-partial-section"> <div class="floats-partial-content"> <div class="partial-carousel--full-image partial-carousel-13bed672a4a982d4f35113f0a9d9fa75"> <div class="partial-carousel--single-image"> <img loading="lazy" alt="(一)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/figures/1362708.fig.002a.jpg"> <br> <strong>(一)</strong> </div> <div class="partial-carousel--single-image"> <img loading="lazy" alt="(b)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/figures/1362708.fig.002b.jpg"> <br> <strong>(b)</strong> </div> <div class="partial-carousel--single-image"> <img loading="lazy" alt="(c)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/figures/1362708.fig.002c.jpg"> <br> <strong>(c)</strong> </div> <div class="partial-carousel--single-image"> <img loading="lazy" alt="(d)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/figures/1362708.fig.002d.jpg"> <br> <strong>(d)</strong> </div> <div class="partial-carousel--single-image"> <img loading="lazy" alt="(e)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/figures/1362708.fig.002e.jpg"> <br> <strong>(e)</strong> </div> </div> </div> <div class="floats-partial-middle"> <div class="floats-partial-middle--thumbs"> <div class="partial-carousel-dots-13bed672a4a982d4f35113f0a9d9fa75 partial-carousel-thumbnail"> <button aria-label="Slide to (a) " class="partial-carousel-dot"><img loading="lazy" alt="(一)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/thumbnails/1362708.fig.002a_th.jpg"><br><strong>(一)</strong></button> <button aria-label="Slide to (b) " class="partial-carousel-dot"><img loading="lazy" alt="(b)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/thumbnails/1362708.fig.002b_th.jpg"><br><strong>(b)</strong></button> <button aria-label="Slide to (c) " class="partial-carousel-dot"><img loading="lazy" alt="(c)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/thumbnails/1362708.fig.002c_th.jpg"><br><strong>(c)</strong></button> <button aria-label="Slide to (d) " class="partial-carousel-dot"><img loading="lazy" alt="(d)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/thumbnails/1362708.fig.002d_th.jpg"><br><strong>(d)</strong></button> <button aria-label="Slide to (e) " class="partial-carousel-dot"><img loading="lazy" alt="(e)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/thumbnails/1362708.fig.002e_th.jpg"><br><strong>(e)</strong></button> </div> </div> <div class="floats-partial-middle--nav"> <div class="partial-carousel-next-prev-13bed672a4a982d4f35113f0a9d9fa75 partial-carousel-next-prev"> <button aria-label="Previous" class="carousel-prev"></button> <button aria-label="Next" class="carousel-next"></button> </div> </div> </div> <div class="floats-partial-footer"> <div class="floats-partial-caption"> <span class="caption-text">图2</span> <a aria-label="View full page" class="caption-partial-url" href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/fig2/" title="" target="_blank"></a> </div> <div class="floats-partial-caption-text"> 降水的空间分布UMR (a) (b)春天夏天秋天(c) (d)冬季和(e)的年度。</div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="partial-carousel-wrapper"> <div class="floats-partial-section"> <div class="floats-partial-content"> <div class="partial-carousel--full-image partial-carousel-cc0adc9e0dc00e2671d7a7d6be1d3246"> <div class="partial-carousel--single-image"> <img loading="lazy" alt="" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/figures/1362708.fig.003.jpg"> <br> <strong></strong> </div> </div> </div> <div class="floats-partial-middle"> <div class="floats-partial-middle--thumbs"> <div class="partial-carousel-dots-cc0adc9e0dc00e2671d7a7d6be1d3246 partial-carousel-thumbnail"> <button aria-label="Slide to " class="partial-carousel-dot"><img loading="lazy" alt="" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/thumbnails/1362708.fig.003_th.jpg"><br><strong></strong></button> </div> </div> <div class="floats-partial-middle--nav"> <div class="partial-carousel-next-prev-cc0adc9e0dc00e2671d7a7d6be1d3246 partial-carousel-next-prev"> <button aria-label="Previous" class="carousel-prev"></button> <button aria-label="Next" class="carousel-next"></button> </div> </div> </div> <div class="floats-partial-footer"> <div class="floats-partial-caption"> <span class="caption-text">图3</span> <a aria-label="View full page" class="caption-partial-url" href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/fig3/" title="" target="_blank"></a> </div> <div class="floats-partial-caption-text"> 箱图<我>C</我> <sub>v</sub>6站UMR从1960 - 2015。</div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="partial-carousel-wrapper"> <div class="floats-partial-section"> <div class="floats-partial-content"> <div class="partial-carousel--full-image partial-carousel-1edd73647a3ec9f3ff34242a7214dac4"> <div class="partial-carousel--single-image"> <img loading="lazy" alt="" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/figures/1362708.fig.004.jpg"> <br> <strong></strong> </div> </div> </div> <div class="floats-partial-middle"> <div class="floats-partial-middle--thumbs"> <div class="partial-carousel-dots-1edd73647a3ec9f3ff34242a7214dac4 partial-carousel-thumbnail"> <button aria-label="Slide to " class="partial-carousel-dot"><img loading="lazy" alt="" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/thumbnails/1362708.fig.004_th.jpg"><br><strong></strong></button> </div> </div> <div class="floats-partial-middle--nav"> <div class="partial-carousel-next-prev-1edd73647a3ec9f3ff34242a7214dac4 partial-carousel-next-prev"> <button aria-label="Previous" class="carousel-prev"></button> <button aria-label="Next" class="carousel-next"></button> </div> </div> </div> <div class="floats-partial-footer"> <div class="floats-partial-caption"> <span class="caption-text">图4</span> <a aria-label="View full page" class="caption-partial-url" href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/fig4/" title="" target="_blank"></a> </div> <div class="floats-partial-caption-text"> 十年平均降雨量的变化测量站和UMR。</div> </div> </div> </div> <p>季节性降水空间分布不均匀,在南部和东南部(图<一个href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/fig2/" target="_blank">2 (2)</一个>- - - - - -<一个href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/fig2/" target="_blank">2 (d)</一个>)。值的平均降雨量132毫米不等(茂县)224 (Heishui)春天,从230毫米(茂县)到647毫米(紫坪铺)在夏天,从103毫米(茂县)到279毫米(紫坪铺)在秋天,和从10毫米(茂县and汶川)49毫米(紫坪铺)在冬天。我们可以得出结论,年降水量的intraannual变异与啤酒区别四个季节不均匀;夏季降水是最和冬季降水量最少的。<我>简历</我>范围从0.19(汶川、高龄和Heishui)到0.25(紫坪铺)春天,0.17(松潘)到0.34(紫坪铺)在夏天,0.22 (Heishui)到0.35(紫坪铺)在秋天,0.52和0.33(紫坪铺)(汶川)在冬天。很明显,季节性降水的年际变化是不同的;最大的变化是在冬天,秋天,夏天,春天(图<一个href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/fig3/" target="_blank">3</一个>)。</p> <h5 id="sec4.2">4.2。趋势分析</h5> <h6 id="sec4.2.1">4.2.1。准备基于线性回归方法的趋势</h6> <p>的<我>b</我>线性回归方法表中列出的值<一个href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/tab3/" target="_blank">3</一个>。在年度基础上,整个流域的降水系列显示一个微不足道的减少趋势10−5.61毫米/,和大波动发生在1970年代和2000年代(图<一个href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/fig5/" target="_blank">5 (e)</一个>)。季节性的规模,一个微不足道的增加趋势被发现在春季和冬季降水系列。在夏季和秋季,区域降水系列有一个微不足道的下降趋势。</p> <div class="floats-partial-section partial-other-wrapper" data-section="tab3"> <div class="floats-partial-footer"> <div class="floats-partial-caption"> <span class="caption-text">表3</span> <a aria-label="View full page" class="caption-partial-url" href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/tab3/" title="" target="_blank"></a> </div> <div class="floats-partial-caption-text"> 的值<我>b</我>在线性回归分析<我>Z</我>和<我>β</我>可UMR。</div> <a class="table-thumb-overlay" href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/tab3" target="_blank" aria-label="View full page"></a> </div> </div> <div class="partial-carousel-wrapper"> <div class="floats-partial-section"> <div class="floats-partial-content"> <div class="partial-carousel--full-image partial-carousel-cdc0e1d17f16b023b08dff4a0fad2356"> <div class="partial-carousel--single-image"> <img loading="lazy" alt="(一)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/figures/1362708.fig.005a.jpg"> <br> <strong>(一)</strong> </div> <div class="partial-carousel--single-image"> <img loading="lazy" alt="(b)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/figures/1362708.fig.005b.jpg"> <br> <strong>(b)</strong> </div> <div class="partial-carousel--single-image"> <img loading="lazy" alt="(c)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/figures/1362708.fig.005c.jpg"> <br> <strong>(c)</strong> </div> <div class="partial-carousel--single-image"> <img loading="lazy" alt="(d)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/figures/1362708.fig.005d.jpg"> <br> <strong>(d)</strong> </div> <div class="partial-carousel--single-image"> <img loading="lazy" alt="(e)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/figures/1362708.fig.005e.jpg"> <br> <strong>(e)</strong> </div> </div> </div> <div class="floats-partial-middle"> <div class="floats-partial-middle--thumbs"> <div class="partial-carousel-dots-cdc0e1d17f16b023b08dff4a0fad2356 partial-carousel-thumbnail"> <button aria-label="Slide to (a) " class="partial-carousel-dot"><img loading="lazy" alt="(一)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/thumbnails/1362708.fig.005a_th.jpg"><br><strong>(一)</strong></button> <button aria-label="Slide to (b) " class="partial-carousel-dot"><img loading="lazy" alt="(b)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/thumbnails/1362708.fig.005b_th.jpg"><br><strong>(b)</strong></button> <button aria-label="Slide to (c) " class="partial-carousel-dot"><img loading="lazy" alt="(c)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/thumbnails/1362708.fig.005c_th.jpg"><br><strong>(c)</strong></button> <button aria-label="Slide to (d) " class="partial-carousel-dot"><img loading="lazy" alt="(d)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/thumbnails/1362708.fig.005d_th.jpg"><br><strong>(d)</strong></button> <button aria-label="Slide to (e) " class="partial-carousel-dot"><img loading="lazy" alt="(e)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/thumbnails/1362708.fig.005e_th.jpg"><br><strong>(e)</strong></button> </div> </div> <div class="floats-partial-middle--nav"> <div class="partial-carousel-next-prev-cdc0e1d17f16b023b08dff4a0fad2356 partial-carousel-next-prev"> <button aria-label="Previous" class="carousel-prev"></button> <button aria-label="Next" class="carousel-next"></button> </div> </div> </div> <div class="floats-partial-footer"> <div class="floats-partial-caption"> <span class="caption-text">图5</span> <a aria-label="View full page" class="caption-partial-url" href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/fig5/" title="" target="_blank"></a> </div> <div class="floats-partial-caption-text"> 趋势研究区域为季节性和年降水量线性回归方法。</div> </div> </div> </div> <h6 id="sec4.2.2">4.2.2。基于可测试的趋势</h6> <p>可测试是用来确定趋势使用双尾假说在5%的显著水平。可测试结果(<我>Z</我>)随着趋势的大小(<我>β</我>)展示在表<一个href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/tab3/" target="_blank">3</一个>。与线性回归方法相比,他们的结果几乎是一致的。箱图<我>Z</我>6站显示在图中<一个href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/fig6/" target="_blank">6</一个>。</p> <div class="partial-carousel-wrapper"> <div class="floats-partial-section"> <div class="floats-partial-content"> <div class="partial-carousel--full-image partial-carousel-598dfe201f45381b295b392ab8abcd76"> <div class="partial-carousel--single-image"> <img loading="lazy" alt="" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/figures/1362708.fig.006.jpg"> <br> <strong></strong> </div> </div> </div> <div class="floats-partial-middle"> <div class="floats-partial-middle--thumbs"> <div class="partial-carousel-dots-598dfe201f45381b295b392ab8abcd76 partial-carousel-thumbnail"> <button aria-label="Slide to " class="partial-carousel-dot"><img loading="lazy" alt="" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/thumbnails/1362708.fig.006_th.jpg"><br><strong></strong></button> </div> </div> <div class="floats-partial-middle--nav"> <div class="partial-carousel-next-prev-598dfe201f45381b295b392ab8abcd76 partial-carousel-next-prev"> <button aria-label="Previous" class="carousel-prev"></button> <button aria-label="Next" class="carousel-next"></button> </div> </div> </div> <div class="floats-partial-footer"> <div class="floats-partial-caption"> <span class="caption-text">图6</span> <a aria-label="View full page" class="caption-partial-url" href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/fig6/" title="" target="_blank"></a> </div> <div class="floats-partial-caption-text"> 箱图<我>Z</我>在1960 - 2015年UMR 6站。</div> </div> </div> </div> <p>为年度规模、区域降水显示一个微不足道的减少趋势,肯德尔斜率是−4.47毫米/ 10,这是与以往的研究一致(<一个href="#B28">28</一个>,<一个href="#B38">38</一个>,<一个href="#B39">39</一个>]。大大减少的趋势在紫坪铺站才发现。分析降水季节性系列规模、区域降水显示在春天一个微不足道的增加趋势(<我>β</我>= 3.45毫米/ 10);一个微不足道的下降趋势在夏季(<我>β</我>=−8.00毫米/ 10)和秋季(<我>β</我>=−3.60毫米/ 10)(<一个href="#B40">40</一个>]。与其他季节相比,冬季降水有相对稳定的年度变化的速度0.35毫米/ 10过去56年。综合分析导致的结论是,年降水量的减少主要是由于夏季降水减少岷江上游的(<一个href="#B27">27</一个>]。春季降水有显著增加的趋势在松潘车站和夏季降水减少的趋势在茂县,汶川,紫坪铺站。</p> <h5 id="sec4.3">4.3。基于序列聚类分析的突然变化</h5> <p>降水变化点检测是一个重要的步骤,可以使一个更好的解释和更准确的预测水文数据。分年度变化和季节性降水时间序列呈现在表<一个href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/tab4/" target="_blank">4</一个>。部分诊断图在图<一个href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/fig7/" target="_blank">7</一个>。</p> <div class="floats-partial-section partial-other-wrapper" data-section="tab4"> <div class="floats-partial-footer"> <div class="floats-partial-caption"> <span class="caption-text">表4</span> <a aria-label="View full page" class="caption-partial-url" href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/tab4/" title="" target="_blank"></a> </div> <div class="floats-partial-caption-text"> 降水时间序列的突变点。</div> <a class="table-thumb-overlay" href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/tab4" target="_blank" aria-label="View full page"></a> </div> </div> <div class="partial-carousel-wrapper"> <div class="floats-partial-section"> <div class="floats-partial-content"> <div class="partial-carousel--full-image partial-carousel-92d02e16cb6bd56be14fc9ea63ffa59a"> <div class="partial-carousel--single-image"> <img loading="lazy" alt="(一)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/figures/1362708.fig.007a.jpg"> <br> <strong>(一)</strong> </div> <div class="partial-carousel--single-image"> <img loading="lazy" alt="(b)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/figures/1362708.fig.007b.jpg"> <br> <strong>(b)</strong> </div> <div class="partial-carousel--single-image"> <img loading="lazy" alt="(c)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/figures/1362708.fig.007c.jpg"> <br> <strong>(c)</strong> </div> <div class="partial-carousel--single-image"> <img loading="lazy" alt="(d)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/figures/1362708.fig.007d.jpg"> <br> <strong>(d)</strong> </div> <div class="partial-carousel--single-image"> <img loading="lazy" alt="(e)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/figures/1362708.fig.007e.jpg"> <br> <strong>(e)</strong> </div> <div class="partial-carousel--single-image"> <img loading="lazy" alt="(f)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/figures/1362708.fig.007f.jpg"> <br> <strong>(f)</strong> </div> <div class="partial-carousel--single-image"> <img loading="lazy" alt="(g)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/figures/1362708.fig.007g.jpg"> <br> <strong>(g)</strong> </div> <div class="partial-carousel--single-image"> <img loading="lazy" alt="(h)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/figures/1362708.fig.007h.jpg"> <br> <strong>(h)</strong> </div> <div class="partial-carousel--single-image"> <img loading="lazy" alt="(我)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/figures/1362708.fig.007i.jpg"> <br> <strong>(我)</strong> </div> <div class="partial-carousel--single-image"> <img loading="lazy" alt="(j)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/figures/1362708.fig.007j.jpg"> <br> <strong>(j)</strong> </div> </div> </div> <div class="floats-partial-middle"> <div class="floats-partial-middle--thumbs"> <div class="partial-carousel-dots-92d02e16cb6bd56be14fc9ea63ffa59a partial-carousel-thumbnail"> <button aria-label="Slide to (a) " class="partial-carousel-dot"><img loading="lazy" alt="(一)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/thumbnails/1362708.fig.007a_th.jpg"><br><strong>(一)</strong></button> <button aria-label="Slide to (b) " class="partial-carousel-dot"><img loading="lazy" alt="(b)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/thumbnails/1362708.fig.007b_th.jpg"><br><strong>(b)</strong></button> <button aria-label="Slide to (c) " class="partial-carousel-dot"><img loading="lazy" alt="(c)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/thumbnails/1362708.fig.007c_th.jpg"><br><strong>(c)</strong></button> <button aria-label="Slide to (d) " class="partial-carousel-dot"><img loading="lazy" alt="(d)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/thumbnails/1362708.fig.007d_th.jpg"><br><strong>(d)</strong></button> <button aria-label="Slide to (e) " class="partial-carousel-dot"><img loading="lazy" alt="(e)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/thumbnails/1362708.fig.007e_th.jpg"><br><strong>(e)</strong></button> <button aria-label="Slide to (f) " class="partial-carousel-dot"><img loading="lazy" alt="(f)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/thumbnails/1362708.fig.007f_th.jpg"><br><strong>(f)</strong></button> <button aria-label="Slide to (g) " class="partial-carousel-dot"><img loading="lazy" alt="(g)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/thumbnails/1362708.fig.007g_th.jpg"><br><strong>(g)</strong></button> <button aria-label="Slide to (h) " class="partial-carousel-dot"><img loading="lazy" alt="(h)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/thumbnails/1362708.fig.007h_th.jpg"><br><strong>(h)</strong></button> <button aria-label="Slide to (i) " class="partial-carousel-dot"><img loading="lazy" alt="(我)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/thumbnails/1362708.fig.007i_th.jpg"><br><strong>(我)</strong></button> <button aria-label="Slide to (j) " class="partial-carousel-dot"><img loading="lazy" alt="(j)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/thumbnails/1362708.fig.007j_th.jpg"><br><strong>(j)</strong></button> </div> </div> <div class="floats-partial-middle--nav"> <div class="partial-carousel-next-prev-92d02e16cb6bd56be14fc9ea63ffa59a partial-carousel-next-prev"> <button aria-label="Previous" class="carousel-prev"></button> <button aria-label="Next" class="carousel-next"></button> </div> </div> </div> <div class="floats-partial-footer"> <div class="floats-partial-caption"> <span class="caption-text">图7</span> <a aria-label="View full page" class="caption-partial-url" href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/fig7/" title="" target="_blank"></a> </div> <div class="floats-partial-caption-text"> 变化点诊断Mann-Kendall测试图形的突然(a e)和序列聚类分析UMR (f j)。水平虚线表示在0.05水平的信心。</div> </div> </div> </div> <p>年降水量UMR,有几个十字路口之间的超滤和乌兰巴托系列在1980年代和1990年代(图<一个href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/fig7/" target="_blank">7 (e)</一个>);和最优分割点是在1995年(图<一个href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/fig7/" target="_blank">7 (j)</一个>)。虽然诊断结果不一样,它更适合突变年划分为1995左右。平均降水量693毫米在1960 - 1995和1996 - 2015年期间减少到657 mm。因此,可测试的结果的突然变化和序列聚类分析表明,突然减少年降水量约1995 (<一个href="#B41">41</一个>]。至于UMR春季降水,佛罗里达大学之间的交叉和乌兰巴托系列是在2001年,但最优分割点是在1995年。有很大不同的时间间隔,因此我们认为没有发生突变。冬季降水突变的结果是一样的春天。通过选择同一点的两个方法,改变点发生在1994年夏天,在1976年秋天。总之,变化点主要出现在1980年代和1990年代,这是类似于过去的研究(<一个href="#B35">35</一个>]。</p> <p>存在一定程度的突然变化的年度和季节性降水系列;和变化点显示不同的特征在不同测量站和UMR。这样的空间变异性可能来源于不同的自然地形、地理位置和人为活动的研究领域。,具体原因需要进一步分析。</p> <h5 id="sec4.4">4.4。基于小波分析Morlet时期</h5> <p>降水的周期性波动导致径流的上下,所以重要的是要正确地理解降水的周期性变化。Morlet小波分析用于确定降水系列的时期。和结果列在表<一个href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/tab5/" target="_blank">5</一个>。小波变换的时间频率图UMR呈现在图<一个href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/fig8/" target="_blank">8</一个>。</p> <div class="floats-partial-section partial-other-wrapper" data-section="tab5"> <div class="floats-partial-footer"> <div class="floats-partial-caption"> <span class="caption-text">表5</span> <a aria-label="View full page" class="caption-partial-url" href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/tab5/" title="" target="_blank"></a> </div> <div class="floats-partial-caption-text"> 时期的降水时间序列。</div> <a class="table-thumb-overlay" href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/tab5" target="_blank" aria-label="View full page"></a> </div> </div> <div class="partial-carousel-wrapper"> <div class="floats-partial-section"> <div class="floats-partial-content"> <div class="partial-carousel--full-image partial-carousel-d72175e3584b584fe1d827f6abe967bf"> <div class="partial-carousel--single-image"> <img loading="lazy" alt="(一)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/figures/1362708.fig.008a.jpg"> <br> <strong>(一)</strong> </div> <div class="partial-carousel--single-image"> <img loading="lazy" alt="(b)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/figures/1362708.fig.008b.jpg"> <br> <strong>(b)</strong> </div> <div class="partial-carousel--single-image"> <img loading="lazy" alt="(c)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/figures/1362708.fig.008c.jpg"> <br> <strong>(c)</strong> </div> <div class="partial-carousel--single-image"> <img loading="lazy" alt="(d)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/figures/1362708.fig.008d.jpg"> <br> <strong>(d)</strong> </div> <div class="partial-carousel--single-image"> <img loading="lazy" alt="(e)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/figures/1362708.fig.008e.jpg"> <br> <strong>(e)</strong> </div> </div> </div> <div class="floats-partial-middle"> <div class="floats-partial-middle--thumbs"> <div class="partial-carousel-dots-d72175e3584b584fe1d827f6abe967bf partial-carousel-thumbnail"> <button aria-label="Slide to (a) " class="partial-carousel-dot"><img loading="lazy" alt="(一)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/thumbnails/1362708.fig.008a_th.jpg"><br><strong>(一)</strong></button> <button aria-label="Slide to (b) " class="partial-carousel-dot"><img loading="lazy" alt="(b)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/thumbnails/1362708.fig.008b_th.jpg"><br><strong>(b)</strong></button> <button aria-label="Slide to (c) " class="partial-carousel-dot"><img loading="lazy" alt="(c)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/thumbnails/1362708.fig.008c_th.jpg"><br><strong>(c)</strong></button> <button aria-label="Slide to (d) " class="partial-carousel-dot"><img loading="lazy" alt="(d)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/thumbnails/1362708.fig.008d_th.jpg"><br><strong>(d)</strong></button> <button aria-label="Slide to (e) " class="partial-carousel-dot"><img loading="lazy" alt="(e)" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/thumbnails/1362708.fig.008e_th.jpg"><br><strong>(e)</strong></button> </div> </div> <div class="floats-partial-middle--nav"> <div class="partial-carousel-next-prev-d72175e3584b584fe1d827f6abe967bf partial-carousel-next-prev"> <button aria-label="Previous" class="carousel-prev"></button> <button aria-label="Next" class="carousel-next"></button> </div> </div> </div> <div class="floats-partial-footer"> <div class="floats-partial-caption"> <span class="caption-text">图8</span> <a aria-label="View full page" class="caption-partial-url" href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/fig8/" title="" target="_blank"></a> </div> <div class="floats-partial-caption-text"> 小波变换的时频图UMR。</div> </div> </div> </div> <p>如图<一个href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/fig8/" target="_blank">8 (e)</一个>,时间参数<我>b</我>是横坐标,频率参数<我>一个</我>纵坐标。上部是低频,等值线相对稀疏,这对应于一个长时间的振荡。下部高频率、等值线较密集,对应于一个较短的周期。可以看出,区域年降水量有一段2,5,17年。几乎周期的季节性降水2,4,19年春天;5年在夏天;2、5、10和17年的秋天;3和15年的冬天。时间测量站的详细信息是不再阐述。总之,研究区域的近时期一般2 - 5年,7 - 11年,15 - 20年<一个href="#B28">28</一个>]。</p> <h5 id="sec4.5">4.5。降水变化引起</h5> <p>全球变暖的背景因素影响UMR降水的变化。在20世纪,特别是自1990年代以来,大气中二氧化碳的浓度不断增加是导致全球变暖。更高的平均气温导致蒸发率越高,水蒸气含量更高,因此加速水文循环。一个重要的全球变暖的后果是增加大气湿度,雷暴活动和/或大规模的风暴活动。在全球变暖的背景下,UMR降水模式发生了变化,这是受到大气环流的影响,高度,和人为活动。</p> <p>大规模的大气环流导致降水的变化对UMR [<一个href="#B40">40</一个>,<一个href="#B42">42</一个>,<一个href="#B43">43</一个>]。东亚夏季风进退的确定在很大程度上降水季节的时机和降水的数量<一个href="#B44">44</一个>]。其他特殊monsoon-like发行量,如西太平洋副热带高压,索马里急流,热带气旋,连同一个阻塞矮秆、纬度高、低槽,也扮演积极的角色在研究区降水变化(<一个href="#B45">45</一个>]。</p> <p>高度是降水变化的另一个原因<一个href="#B46">46</一个>]。统计<我>Z</我>的价值与海拔、年降水量有良好的关系和相关系数是0.99(图<一个href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/fig9/" target="_blank">9</一个>)。,降水的增加趋势比较明显的在高海拔处,而减少的趋势是更重要的在低空站。总的来说,<我>Z</我>UMR海拔增加价值,按照先前的研究[<一个href="#B47">47</一个>]。</p> <div class="partial-carousel-wrapper"> <div class="floats-partial-section"> <div class="floats-partial-content"> <div class="partial-carousel--full-image partial-carousel-12eae4ab2ec9bc5d48406564554fbfe3"> <div class="partial-carousel--single-image"> <img loading="lazy" alt="" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/figures/1362708.fig.009.jpg"> <br> <strong></strong> </div> </div> </div> <div class="floats-partial-middle"> <div class="floats-partial-middle--thumbs"> <div class="partial-carousel-dots-12eae4ab2ec9bc5d48406564554fbfe3 partial-carousel-thumbnail"> <button aria-label="Slide to " class="partial-carousel-dot"><img loading="lazy" alt="" src="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/amete/volume-2018/1362708/thumbnails/1362708.fig.009_th.jpg"><br><strong></strong></button> </div> </div> <div class="floats-partial-middle--nav"> <div class="partial-carousel-next-prev-12eae4ab2ec9bc5d48406564554fbfe3 partial-carousel-next-prev"> <button aria-label="Previous" class="carousel-prev"></button> <button aria-label="Next" class="carousel-next"></button> </div> </div> </div> <div class="floats-partial-footer"> <div class="floats-partial-caption"> <span class="caption-text">图9</span> <a aria-label="View full page" class="caption-partial-url" href="//www.newsama.com/journals/amete/2018/1362708/fig9/" title="" target="_blank"></a> </div> <div class="floats-partial-caption-text"> 数据之间的关系<我>Z</我>年降水量和高度的价值。</div> </div> </div> </div> <p>一些因素表明,人为活动对降水的影响是健壮的<一个href="#B48">48</一个>]。人为活动不仅修改交换热量,水,和动量之间的陆地表面和上覆气氛还改变大气的成分在城市地区。土地利用变化受人为活动影响当地的水文气象过程,有时影响明显降水。</p> <p>降水变化的物理机制是一个挑战,深入理解。进一步调查的多尺度大气环流之间的互动,高度,和人为活动也可能是重要的和必要的理解降水变化。</p> <h4 id="conclusion">5。结论</h4> <p>在这项研究中,时空分布特点、趋势、突然的变化,时间的年度和季节性降水系列分析了UMR期间1960 - 2015。根据上面的分析,总结了主要结论如下。</p> <p>降水分布不均匀的空间,更多的南部和东南部。降水的年际变化表现出明显的区域性和季节性差异UMR。十年平均降水量在2000年代达到了最低测量站和UMR和增加在2010 - 2015。初步的结论是,在研究区降水相对异常在21世纪。</p> <p>区域年降水量表现出一个微不足道的下降趋势从1960年到2015年,这主要是由于夏季降水减少。春季降水表现出一个微不足道的增加趋势,冬季降水保持不变。</p> <p>点的变化主要出现在1980年代和1990年代。几乎和研究区域通常是2 - 5年的时间,7 - 11年,15 - 20年。由于不同的自然地形、地理位置,测量站和人为活动,不同的电台节目不同的突然变化和时间的结果。</p> <p>在全球变暖的背景下,UMR受到大气降水变化的发行量,高度,和人为活动。不断增加的趋势,在高海拔地区年降水量相对明显,而减少的趋势是更重要的在低海拔。需要进一步分析定量和系统地调查大气循环之间的相互作用,高度,和人为活动。相关研究提供科学理论依据水问题在气候变化和帮助我们改善区域减灾和水资源管理。</p> <h4 id="data-availability">数据可用性</h4> <p>大部分的数据系列用于支持本研究的发现来自中国气象数据共享服务系统,可以在网络上<一个href="http://data.cma.cn/" target="_blank">http://data.cma.cn/</一个>。只有数据系列在紫坪铺站提供的四川省水文和水资源,不能免费提供。</p> <h4 id="conflicts-of-interest">的利益冲突</h4> <p>作者宣称没有利益冲突。</p> <h4 id="acknowledgments">确认</h4> <p>这项研究受到了美国国家科学基金会中国委员会(51679155)。</p> </div> </div> <div class="ArticleReferences_xmlContent__p_40j"> <h4 class="ArticleReferences_references__GH2t_" id="references">引用</h4> <ol class="ArticleReferences_orderedReferences__mJr9M"> <li class="ArticleReferences_articleReference__ouEuh" id="B1"> <div class="referenceContent"> <p class="referenceText">t·克劳利”引起的气候变化在过去的1000年里,“<我>科学</我>,卷289,不。5477年,第277 - 270页,2000年。</p>视图: <a 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