TY -的A2 Marozio卢卡盟——Makuei Gabriel AU - Abdollahian马里AU -马里昂,凯PY - 2020 DA - 2020/06/01 TI -最优配置文件限制孕产妇死亡率(MMR)受到出血和不安全堕胎在南苏丹SP - 2793960六世- 2020 AB -孕产妇死亡率(MMR)是全球主要的公共卫生挑战之一。目前，高水平的MMR是世界公共卫生的一个共同问题，特别是在发展中国家。这些孕产妇死亡中有一半发生在撒哈拉以南非洲，那里几乎没有或根本没有取得进展。南苏丹是MMR最高的发展中国家之一。因此，本文通过统计分析来确定南苏丹MMR的重要生理原因。然后建立基于泊松回归的预测模型，根据重要的生理原因来预测MMR。采用确定系数和方差膨胀系数来评估个体原因对MMR的影响。通过分析模型的预测误差来评估模型的有效性。本文首次采用优化方法确定了MMR的年下、上剖面限值。出血和不安全堕胎被用于实现联合国2030年的低和高妇幼保健目标。 The statistical analysis indicates that reducing haemorrhaging by 1.91% per year would reduce MMR by 1.91% (95% CI (42.85–52.53)), reducing unsafe abortion by 0.49% per year would reduce MMR by 0.49% (95% CI (11.06–13.56)). The results indicate that the most influential predictors of MMR are; hemorrhaging (38%), sepsis (11.5%), obstructed labour (11.5%), unsafe abortion (10%), and indirect causes such as anaemia, malaria, and HIV/AIDs virus (29%). The results also show that to obtain the UN recommended MMR levels of minimum 21 and maximum 42 by 2030, the Government and other stakeholders should simultaneously, reduce haemorrhaging from the current value of 62 to 33.38 and 16.69, reduce unsafe abortion from the current value of 16 to 8.62 and 4.31. Thirty years of data is used to develop the optimal reduced Poisson Model based on hemorrhaging and unsafe abortion. The model with R 2 的92.68%可以预测MMR，平均误差为- 0.42329,SE-mean为0.02268。每年最佳的出血、不安全流产和MMR水平可以帮助政府和其他利益攸关方在资源分配方面减少孕产妇死亡的风险。SN - 2090-2727 UR - https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/2793960 DO - 10.1155/2020/2793960 JF -妊娠杂志PB - Hindawi KW - ER -