ty -jour a2 -Stendel，Martin au -Brown，Laura C. Au -Duguay，Claude R. Py -2012 DA-2012/2012/09/27 Ti-对卫星检测到的亚网格细胞变异性SP-进行检查，对湖冰态进行建模 -529064 VL -2012 AB-使用一维热力学冰模型模拟了加拿大魁北克省的当代和未来气候条件。该模型被纳尔数据（32公里）和每日IMS产品（4 km）和MODIS雪产品（500 m）强制强制，评估了它们在确定亚网格细胞水平上确定湖泊冰态的效用（基于32 km NARR grid). Both products were useful for detecting ice-off; however, the MODIS product was advantageous for detecting ice-on, mainly due to the finer resolution and resulting spatial detail. The subgrid cell variability in ice-on/off dates was typically less than 2% of the mean, although it ranged up to 10% for some grid cells. The simulations were found to be within the satellite-detected subgrid cell variability: 62% of the time for ice-off and 80% of the time for ice-on. Forcing the model with future climate scenarios from the Canadian Regional Climate Model predicts the regional ice cover durations will decrease by up to 50 days from the current 1981–2010 means to the 2041–2070 means and decrease from 15 to nearly 100 days shorter from the current means to the 2071–2100 means. SN - 1687-9309 UR - https://doi.org/10.1155/2012/529064 DO - 10.1155/2012/529064 JF - Advances in Meteorology PB - Hindawi Publishing Corporation KW - ER -